Events
Some forecasts are a storm, not a Tuesday high. Hurricanes are graded against the NHC best track. Snow and severe weather use the range rule: midpoint error, and a hit when the observation falls inside the forecast.
Snowfall · Severe weather · Event methodology
Tropical cyclones
| Storm | Basin | Year | Span |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur AL012026 | AL | 2026 | Jun 15, 2026 – Jun 18, 2026 |
| Lala CP012026 | CP | 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 28, 2026 |
| Amanda EP012026 | EP | 2026 | May 31, 2026 – Jun 8, 2026 |
| Bertha AL022026 | AL | 2026 | Jul 17, 2026 – Jul 24, 2026 |
| Moke CP022026 | CP | 2026 | Aug 18, 2026 – Aug 25, 2026 |
| Boris EP022026 | EP | 2026 | Jun 5, 2026 – Jun 9, 2026 |
| Cristobal AL032026 | AL | 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 13, 2026 |
| Cristina EP032026 | EP | 2026 | Jun 6, 2026 – Jun 11, 2026 |
| Dolly AL042026 | AL | 2026 | Aug 24, 2026 – Aug 31, 2026 |
| Douglas EP042026 | EP | 2026 | Jun 28, 2026 – Jul 3, 2026 |
| Edouard AL052026 | AL | 2026 | Aug 28, 2026 – Sep 3, 2026 |
| Elida EP052026 | EP | 2026 | Jul 12, 2026 – Jul 20, 2026 |
| Fay AL062026 | AL | 2026 | Sep 17, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026 |
| Fausto EP062026 | EP | 2026 | Jul 16, 2026 – Jul 29, 2026 |
| Gonzalo AL072026 | AL | 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026 |
| Genevieve EP072026 | EP | 2026 | Jul 24, 2026 – Aug 6, 2026 |
| Hernan EP082026 | EP | 2026 | Aug 10, 2026 – Aug 15, 2026 |
| Iselle EP092026 | EP | 2026 | Aug 21, 2026 – Aug 27, 2026 |
| Julio EP102026 | EP | 2026 | Aug 20, 2026 – Aug 25, 2026 |
| Karina EP112026 | EP | 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 – Sep 7, 2026 |
| Lowell EP122026 | EP | 2026 | Aug 25, 2026 – Sep 11, 2026 |
| Marie EP132026 | EP | 2026 | Aug 29, 2026 – Sep 8, 2026 |
| Norbert EP142026 | EP | 2026 | Sep 7, 2026 – Sep 15, 2026 |
| Nolo EP152026 | EP | 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026 |
| Odalys EP162026 | EP | 2026 | Sep 16, 2026 – Sep 27, 2026 |
| Polo EP172026 | EP | 2026 | Sep 17, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026 |
| Rachel EP182026 | EP | 2026 | Sep 25, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026 |
Long-run track record
Mean track error in statute miles, and intensity error in knots, at 24, 48, 72, and 120 hours. A forecast counts only when the best track has a fix at that exact valid time. A model’s error is averaged only on the cases that also have an NHC official forecast from that same issue, which is what the skill compares. This pools every storm currently on file.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 507 | 36 mi | -0.22 | 19 kt |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 413 | 57 mi | -0.37 | 21 kt |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 338 | 86 mi | -0.43 | 23 kt |
| GEFS mean | 120 h | 198 | 181 mi | -0.30 | 27 kt |
| GFS | 24 h | 507 | 38 mi | -0.29 | 14 kt |
| GFS | 48 h | 413 | 58 mi | -0.40 | 16 kt |
| GFS | 72 h | 338 | 87 mi | -0.46 | 16 kt |
| GFS | 120 h | 198 | 190 mi | -0.37 | 20 kt |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 254 | 42 mi | -0.42 | 26 kt |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 207 | 70 mi | -0.72 | 29 kt |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 171 | 108 mi | -0.80 | 31 kt |
| Canadian GEM | 120 h | 98 | 219 mi | -0.59 | 37 kt |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 449 | 43 mi | -0.43 | 10 kt |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 358 | 62 mi | -0.44 | 12 kt |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 284 | 94 mi | -0.50 | 13 kt |
| HAFS-A | 120 h | 153 | 182 mi | -0.36 | 19 kt |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 450 | 43 mi | -0.43 | 10 kt |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 359 | 60 mi | -0.41 | 13 kt |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 285 | 89 mi | -0.44 | 15 kt |
| HAFS-B | 120 h | 154 | 177 mi | -0.33 | 18 kt |
| HMON | 24 h | 416 | 41 mi | -0.36 | 11 kt |
| HMON | 48 h | 336 | 65 mi | -0.55 | 15 kt |
| HMON | 72 h | 274 | 98 mi | -0.59 | 16 kt |
| HMON | 120 h | 151 | 187 mi | -0.39 | 21 kt |
| HWRF | 24 h | 415 | 42 mi | -0.38 | 12 kt |
| HWRF | 48 h | 337 | 62 mi | -0.46 | 14 kt |
| HWRF | 72 h | 273 | 91 mi | -0.47 | 16 kt |
| HWRF | 120 h | 150 | 184 mi | -0.37 | 19 kt |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 424 | 63 mi | -1.12 | 25 kt |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 341 | 112 mi | -1.61 | 22 kt |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 267 | 172 mi | -1.78 | 20 kt |
| NAVGEM | 120 h | 144 | 340 mi | -1.53 | 27 kt |
| NHC official | 24 h | 508 | 30 mi | — | 7 kt |
| NHC official | 48 h | 414 | 41 mi | — | 10 kt |
| NHC official | 72 h | 339 | 60 mi | — | 11 kt |
| NHC official | 120 h | 198 | 139 mi | — | 14 kt |
| UKMET | 24 h | 253 | 38 mi | -0.30 | 22 kt |
| UKMET | 48 h | 205 | 63 mi | -0.54 | 25 kt |
| UKMET | 72 h | 168 | 98 mi | -0.65 | 26 kt |
| UKMET | 120 h | 96 | 179 mi | -0.29 | 30 kt |