Polo
EP172026 · 2026 · Sep 17, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026. 8259 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 26 | 27 mi | -0.15 | 63 kt | -2.69 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 22 | 34 mi | +0.15 | 65 kt | -3.43 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 18 | 38 mi | +0.25 | 65 kt | -3.53 |
| GEFS mean | 120 h | 10 | 117 mi | +0.12 | 62 kt | -2.78 |
| GFS | 24 h | 26 | 27 mi | -0.13 | 38 kt | -1.21 |
| GFS | 48 h | 22 | 39 mi | +0.04 | 41 kt | -1.79 |
| GFS | 72 h | 18 | 54 mi | -0.07 | 40 kt | -1.78 |
| GFS | 120 h | 10 | 144 mi | -0.08 | 41 kt | -1.48 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 13 | 33 mi | -0.33 | 74 kt | -3.60 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 11 | 61 mi | -0.43 | 73 kt | -5.22 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 9 | 109 mi | -1.24 | 73 kt | -4.04 |
| Canadian GEM | 120 h | 5 | 236 mi | -0.84 | 66 kt | -3.71 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 26 | 38 mi | -0.62 | 27 kt | -0.60 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 22 | 62 mi | -0.54 | 25 kt | -0.69 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 18 | 61 mi | -0.23 | 27 kt | -0.84 |
| HAFS-A | 120 h | 10 | 77 mi | +0.42 | 36 kt | -1.16 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 26 | 35 mi | -0.48 | 24 kt | -0.40 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 22 | 56 mi | -0.38 | 25 kt | -0.70 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 18 | 68 mi | -0.36 | 32 kt | -1.25 |
| HAFS-B | 120 h | 10 | 122 mi | +0.08 | 41 kt | -1.47 |
| HMON | 24 h | 26 | 35 mi | -0.51 | 16 kt | +0.04 |
| HMON | 48 h | 22 | 55 mi | -0.37 | 22 kt | -0.47 |
| HMON | 72 h | 18 | 77 mi | -0.55 | 23 kt | -0.56 |
| HMON | 120 h | 10 | 102 mi | +0.24 | 43 kt | -1.62 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 26 | 37 mi | -0.57 | 20 kt | -0.18 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 22 | 64 mi | -0.58 | 25 kt | -0.67 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 18 | 81 mi | -0.63 | 24 kt | -0.69 |
| HWRF | 120 h | 10 | 144 mi | -0.08 | 25 kt | -0.51 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 26 | 47 mi | -1.01 | 47 kt | -1.75 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 22 | 68 mi | -0.68 | 42 kt | -1.87 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 18 | 109 mi | -1.18 | 40 kt | -1.77 |
| NAVGEM | 120 h | 10 | 384 mi | -1.88 | 52 kt | -2.13 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 26 | 23 mi | — | 17 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 22 | 40 mi | — | 15 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 18 | 50 mi | — | 14 kt | — |
| NHC official | 120 h | 10 | 133 mi | — | 16 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 12 | 71 mi | -1.82 | 66 kt | -3.19 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 10 | 81 mi | -0.82 | 68 kt | -4.45 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 8 | 109 mi | -1.16 | 61 kt | -3.89 |
| UKMET | 120 h | 3 | 241 mi | -0.78 | 49 kt | -3.20 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. TV station grading is coming soon. For now, this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.