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EP152026 · 2026 · Sep 10, 2026 – Sep 28, 2026. 11919 stored fixes. Operational NHC b-deck and, when present, the public a-deck. The b-deck is revised after the season. HURDAT2 is the later final track and is not ingested yet.
Track and intensity
Miles are great-circle statute miles. Intensity error is the absolute difference in knots. The baseline is the NHC official forecast (OFCL). Model aids are the early-cycle trackers in the public a-deck: GFS (AVNO), GEFS mean (AEMN), Canadian GEM (CMC), UKMET (UKX), HAFS, HWRF, HMON, and NAVGEM when that storm’s file contains them. ECMWF and AIFS trackers were not in the public a-deck when this was checked, so they are absent rather than filled in.
| Source | Lead | Cases | Track | Track skill | Intensity | Intensity skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEFS mean | 24 h | 25 | 44 mi | -0.32 | 20 kt | -2.07 |
| GEFS mean | 48 h | 20 | 66 mi | -0.17 | 22 kt | -1.43 |
| GEFS mean | 72 h | 16 | 77 mi | +0.03 | 19 kt | -1.21 |
| GFS | 24 h | 25 | 47 mi | -0.40 | 15 kt | -1.33 |
| GFS | 48 h | 20 | 70 mi | -0.23 | 17 kt | -0.86 |
| GFS | 72 h | 16 | 94 mi | -0.19 | 11 kt | -0.30 |
| Canadian GEM | 24 h | 12 | 44 mi | -0.26 | 25 kt | -2.49 |
| Canadian GEM | 48 h | 10 | 101 mi | -0.85 | 30 kt | -1.88 |
| Canadian GEM | 72 h | 8 | 161 mi | -1.21 | 27 kt | -1.87 |
| HAFS-A | 24 h | 25 | 59 mi | -0.77 | 9 kt | -0.39 |
| HAFS-A | 48 h | 20 | 78 mi | -0.38 | 12 kt | -0.32 |
| HAFS-A | 72 h | 16 | 110 mi | -0.39 | 11 kt | -0.21 |
| HAFS-B | 24 h | 25 | 54 mi | -0.62 | 8 kt | -0.23 |
| HAFS-B | 48 h | 20 | 71 mi | -0.26 | 11 kt | -0.21 |
| HAFS-B | 72 h | 16 | 82 mi | -0.03 | 9 kt | -0.02 |
| HMON | 24 h | 25 | 49 mi | -0.46 | 9 kt | -0.41 |
| HMON | 48 h | 20 | 76 mi | -0.35 | 13 kt | -0.42 |
| HMON | 72 h | 16 | 116 mi | -0.47 | 14 kt | -0.59 |
| HWRF | 24 h | 24 | 49 mi | -0.48 | 11 kt | -0.68 |
| HWRF | 48 h | 20 | 57 mi | -0.01 | 13 kt | -0.42 |
| HWRF | 72 h | 16 | 80 mi | -0.00 | 12 kt | -0.32 |
| NAVGEM | 24 h | 23 | 114 mi | -2.43 | 29 kt | -3.18 |
| NAVGEM | 48 h | 19 | 195 mi | -2.38 | 26 kt | -1.85 |
| NAVGEM | 72 h | 15 | 261 mi | -2.21 | 22 kt | -1.70 |
| NHC official | 24 h | 25 | 33 mi | — | 6 kt | — |
| NHC official | 48 h | 20 | 57 mi | — | 9 kt | — |
| NHC official | 72 h | 16 | 79 mi | — | 9 kt | — |
| UKMET | 24 h | 12 | 35 mi | +0.00 | 23 kt | -2.24 |
| UKMET | 48 h | 10 | 63 mi | -0.16 | 26 kt | -1.49 |
| UKMET | 72 h | 8 | 148 mi | -1.03 | 25 kt | -1.65 |
Landfall
Location error is statute miles. Timing error is hours. A landfall is scored only when an explicit landfall row is stored. This version does not infer one from the track crossing a coastline.
No explicit landfall is on file for this storm.
Local impact in a market
Rainfall, peak wind, and surge forecasts for a station’s own market belong here, including ranges. TV station grading is coming soon. For now, this card does not invent a local total.
No local-impact forecast is stored for this storm.